Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 141

Reports of Note Due This Week

The September jobs report is due out Friday and the all-important Personal Consumption Index is also due out on Thursday. Investors will also see the ADP employment report, GDP, housing and manufacturing data.

• Monday, Oct 28 – none scheduled.
• Tuesday Oct 29 – 9:00 A.M. S&P Case-Shiller home price index. 10:00 A.M. consumer confidence and job openings (jolts)
• Wednesday Oct 30 – At 8:00 A.M. we see the release of the ADP employment expected at 113,000 jobs created versus 143,000 in Sep.  Then at 8:30, the release of GDP for Q3 and then at 10:00 A.M. it is pending home sales.
• Thursday Oct 31 – We start the day at 8:30 A.M. with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims expected to be up to 235,000 versus last weeks 227,000. Also, at 8:30 A.M. is the PCE Index (Personal Consumption Index). Then at 10:00 A.M. the Chicago PMI for Oct. will be released.
• Friday Nov 1 – At 8:30 A.M. U.S. employment report and the U.S. unemployment rate. Then at 9:45 we see the release of the S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI, followed at 10:00 A.M. by construction spending ans ISM manufacturing.

Geopolitics

U.S. and Israeli officials are headed back to Doha for resumed negotiations aimed at securing a cease-fire and the release of hostages in Gaza. This follows the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who the U.S. viewed as a major barrier to peace. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is already in the region, expressed optimism about leveraging this new phase to advance talks. Discussions will also build on an Egyptian proposal for a two-week cease-fire in exchange for releasing six hostages, with ongoing dialogue between Egypt and Hamas showing promise.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met for formal talks for the first time in five years during the BRICS summit in Russia. They agreed to enhance communication, cooperation, and resolve conflicts to mend ties damaged by the 2020 military clash along their disputed border. Both leaders directed their officials to stabilize relations and expressed a commitment to peace and mutual respect. This rapprochement follows an agreement to resolve the military standoff in the Himalayan region of Ladakh. The meeting is expected to boost Chinese investment in India.

North Korean troops will soon fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, escalating the conflict. This development, confirmed by the U.S., marks a major increase in North Korea’s support for Russia and shifts the regional dynamics, particularly concerning China, North Korea’s traditional ally. The deployment could deepen North Korea’s international isolation and enhance its military cooperation with Russia, potentially affecting North Korea’s relationships with other neighboring countries and altering regional security dynamics.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition lost its majority in the lower house of parliament following voter backlash against financial scandals within the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Despite retaining the largest number of seats, the LDP now faces challenges in passing legislation and may need to seek additional coalition partners. The opposition, led by Yoshihiko Noda’s Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, gained significantly, complicating Ishiba’s efforts to stabilize his administration. This election result introduces potential instability and may mark a period of short-lived prime ministerships amid ongoing public dissatisfaction with political corruption.