Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 138

Reports of Note Due This Week

The minutes from the Federal Reserve September FOMC meeting will be released Wednesday afternoon. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Thursday for September. This will indicate whether inflation is continuing to fall. Also out is PPI, consumer credit and the federal trade deficit. 

• Monday, Oct 7 – 3:00 P.M. Consumer credit.
• Tuesday Oct 8 – At 6:00 A.M.  we start early with NFIB optimism index for September. Then at 8:30 A.M. the U.S. trade deficit will be released.
• Wednesday Oct 9 – At 10:00 A.M., wholesale inventories are released. Then at 2:00 P.M. the minutes of the Fed’s September FOMC meeting will be released.
• Thursday Oct 10 – We start the day at 8:30 A.M. with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. They are expected to be 230,000 versus last weeks 225,000. Also out is Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI., both expected to be down 0.1%.
• Friday Oct 11 – At 8:30 A.M. Producer Price Index and Core PPI and then at 10:00 A.M. we see consumer sentiment.

Geopolitics

Dockworkers on the East and Gulf Coasts are returning to work after reaching a tentative wage agreement, ending a significant strike. The deal extends their current labor contract through mid-January while negotiations continue. The strike, which began at midnight on a Monday, marked the first since 1977 and involved ports from Maine to Texas. The exact terms of the wage deal were not disclosed. President Biden commended the resolution, which helped avert further economic disruption and supply-chain issues. Further negotiations will address the issue of port automation.

Last Monday Israel’s military launched ground raids in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, aiming to push the group farther from the Israeli border. The operation is  expected to focus on Hezbollah’s infrastructure. The U.S. was informed of the plans, which are meant to be limited in scope. Despite intentions for a restricted offensive, concerns remain about potential escalation. This action follows intensified interactions between the U.S. and Israel and comes amidst broader international calls for a ceasefire to prevent a regional war escalation.

Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel on Tuesday, firing approximately 180 missiles, leading to sirens across Israel and defensive actions from Israel’s aerial defense systems. The attack followed heightened tensions due to Israel’s military activities in Lebanon, including the killing of a key Hezbollah leader. The U.S. supported Israel’s defense efforts, with President Biden authorizing military assistance to intercept the missiles.

The European Union has voted to implement definitive tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China. This decision follows concerns that these imports benefit from substantial subsidies and pose a risk to European manufacturers. Debates within the EU were intense, with countries like France advocating for the tariffs, while Germany expressed concerns about potential negative impacts on its automakers. The tariffs aim to counter unfair competition and are a response to perceived economic threats from subsidized Chinese electric vehicles.