Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 136
Issue 136- The Week of September 23rd, 2024
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 2587.00 | 2630.00 |
| 2544.00 | 2675.00 |
| 2511.00 | 2725.00 |
| 2490.00 | 2775.00 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 30.79 | 31.53 |
| 30.35 | 32.15 |
| 29.45 | 33.18 |
| 28.45 | 34.00 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
Several Federal Reserve officials will speak this week including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on a recorded message on Thursday. Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) will show whether inflation continues to slow. Also out will be S&P Global flash U.S. PMI, consumer confidence, pending home sales, Case-Shiller home price index and durable goods to name a few.
- Monday, Sep 23 – 9:45 A.M. S&P flash U.S. services and manufacturing PMI.
- Tuesday Sep 24 – At 9:00 A.M. we see the Case-Shiller home price index and then at 10:00 A.M. consumer confidence.
- Wednesday Sep 25– At 10:00 A.M. sees the release of new home sales.
- Thursday Sep269 – We start the day at 8:30 A.M. with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. They are expected to be unchanged at 223,000 versus last weeks 219,000. Also, out at 8:30 A.M. is durable goods orders and GDP (second revision). At 10:00 A.M. we see the release of pending home sales.
- Friday Sep 27 – At 8:30 A.M. we see personal income and spending along with the PCE Index. Also advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, wholesale and retail inventories and then at 10:00 A.M. it is consumer sentiment final for September.
Geopolitics
The United Auto Workers union has accused Stellantis of breaching their 2023 contract by allegedly planning to move Dodge Durango production out of the U.S. The union filed federal unfair labor practice charges and several grievances, citing violations related to this and other commitments like reopening an assembly plant in Illinois. The company denies these claims, stating compliance with the contract terms. The union is prepared to enforce the agreement and insists on keeping production in Detroit. This is in the wake of the 2023 strikes against the “Big 3” that lasted 46 days.
The Federal Reserve announced a reduction of its key interest rate by half a percentage point to support the economy, noting slowing job growth and progress towards its 2% inflation target. This cut is intended to sustain economic stability while minimizing the risk of increased inflation. The Fed’s action signals a proactive stance in managing economic indicators to prevent a significant downturn.
President Vladimir Putin has directed an expansion of the Russian army to make it the second largest globally, citing increased threats along Russia’s borders. The size of the army will grow by 180,000 to reach 1.5 million active members, surpassing the United States and India and trailing only China. This expansion is seen as a response to hostile conditions on Russia’s western borders and instability to the east. The adjustment in military structure aims to address security concerns, especially with Finland joining NATO and potential U.S. military enhancements in Japan.
President Donald Trump was quickly secured after an apparent assassination attempt at his golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida. Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, was arrested and charged with firearms offenses following the incident. This event occurred close to two months after another attack at a Trump rally. Secret Service agents spotted the assailant while sweeping the golf course. Routh, who did not fire his weapon or have a clear line of sight to Trump, was apprehended while attempting to flee. He has a history of criminal activity and had previously attempted to recruit volunteers in Ukraine.
The Call
Gold hit another all-time high on Friday helped by the Federal Reserves half point interest rate reduction and heightening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Both factors along with strong investor and Central Bank demand should keep gold rallying over the next few months. Is another new high in store for gold this week? Market momentum would suggest this, and we would not be surprised to see the level of 2700.00 exceeded. Over the next couple of weeks, a possible retest of the 2575.00 area to the downside should be expected with the increased volatility we are experiencing in the gold market.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened on Sunday evening at 2581.70 and chopped sideways to lower awaiting the announcement by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon on interest rates. The market expected a reduction of ¼ % and was hoping for ½ %. The result was a 0.50% cut and gold spiked higher to 2600.00 before selling off to make the weekly low of 2546. 20. From here,gold steadily marched higher the rest of the week again making new all time highs multiple times through to Friday afternoon. The new all-time high was registered at 2624.70 for spot gold or 2651.00 for the December contract. Friday afternoons closing price was 2621.20.
Silver opened Sunday night at 30.755 and like gold copped sideways to lower awaiting the FOMC interest rate call. The half point cut had the same result on silver as it did on gold. A sharp spike higher to 31.26 and then a selloff to the weekly low of 29.715. A steady sharp upward rally took silver to its weekly high by Friday afternoon at 31.44 before closing a little lower at 31.17.
- The U.S. Dollar Index was a little weaker this week and finished at 100.72.
- The Gold/Silver Ratio closed the week at 84.2 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 2581.70 | 30.75 |
| High | 2624.70 | 31.44 |
| Low | 2546.20 | 29.71 |
| Close | 2621.20 | 31.17 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
