Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 135

Reports of Note Due This Week

The Federal reserve is expected to lower interest rates on Wednesday afternoon. The big question is whether it will be a ¼ point or ½ point. Also being released will be existing home sales, housing  and retail sales.

• Monday, Sep 16 – 8:30 A.M. Empire State manufacturing survey. The median forecast is -5.0 versus -4.7 last month.
• Tuesday Sep 17 – At 8:30 A.M.  we see U.S. retail sales for August. Consensus is -0.3% versus up 1.0% in July. Then at 9:15 A.M. we see the release of both the capacity utilization and industrial production for August and finally at 10:00 A.M. business inventories and home builder confidence.
• Wednesday Sep 18 – At 8:30 A.M.      sees the release of housing starts and building permits
• At 2:00 P.M. The long anticipated FOMC interest rate decision followed at 2:30 P.M. by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
• Thursday Sep 19 – We start the day at 8:30 A.M. with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. They are expected to be unchanged at 230,000 versus last weeks 230,000. Also, out at 8:30 A.M. is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. Then at 10:00 A.M. we see existing home sales and U.S. leading economic indicators.
• Friday Sep 20 – None scheduled.

Geopolitics

Russia and Ukraine completed another major prisoner exchange, mediated by the United Arab Emirates, involving 206 individuals over two days. Each country retrieved 103 of their military personnel, with the Russian prisoners having been captured during Ukraine’s recent incursion into the Kursk region. This swap is part of ongoing exchanges since the 2022 invasion, bringing the total number of Ukrainians returned to 3,672 across 57 exchanges.

China plans to raise its retirement ages for the first time since the 1950s due to falling birth rates and an aging workforce. Starting next year, men’s retirement age will gradually increase from 60 to 63, and women’s from 55 to 58 for office jobs, and from 50 to 55 for factory work. This change, to be implemented over 15 years, aims to alleviate pressure on China’s pension system amid a shrinking workforce and rising life expectancy. The decision has sparked widespread public debate about job competition and financial security for the elderly.

President Vladimir Putin has warned that Russia would consider itself at war with the United States and its allies if they allow Ukraine to use long-range Western weapons against Russian targets. This statement comes as U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer discuss increasing support for Ukraine, including the potential use of such weapons. Amidst rising tensions, Putin’s comments reflect a significant escalation in rhetoric, emphasizing that any direct involvement by NATO countries in the conflict could lead to severe consequences.

In Mexico, a contentious proposal to elect judges sparked mass protests, with hundreds storming the Senate as the ruling party pushed the plan forward. The reform, criticized for potentially undermining judicial independence and altering checks and balances, incited outrage among judicial employees and law students. Despite opposition, the Morena party garnered enough votes, including from a controversially replaced senator, to pass the measure. The change has raised concerns domestically and internationally about its impact on democracy and the legal system.