Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 131
Issue 131 – The Week of August 19th, 2024
Key Resistance and Supports this Week
Gold
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 2475.00 | 2539.00 |
| 2450.00 | 2580.00 |
| 2415.00 | 2625.00 |
| 2360.00 | 2675.00 |
Silver
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 28.40 | 29.30 |
| 27.50 | 29.72 |
| 27.15 | 30.44 |
| 26.45 | 31.17 |
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Reports of Note Due This Week
This week there is very little in the way of economic indicators. The Democratic National Convention begins on Monday and runs until Thursday. FOMC minutes of the July 30/31 meeting will be released Wednesday at 2:00 PM.
- Monday, Aug 19 – U.S. leading economic indicators will be released at 10:00 P.M.
- Tuesday Aug 20 – No reports of note.
- Wednesday Aug 21 – At 2:00 P.M. we see thew release of the minutes from the July FOMC meeting
- Thursday August 22 – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM. They are expected to be slightly higher at 230,000 versus last weeks 227,000. At 9:45 A.M., the S&P Global flash U.S. services and manufacturing PMI will be released. Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins.
- Friday August 23 – 10:00 A.M. Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers remarks at Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and New Home sales are also released.
Geopolitics
Sweden has confirmed its first case of the more dangerous clade I strain of mpox, marking the strain’s first known occurrence outside Africa. This development follows the World Health Organization’s declaration of mpox as a global health emergency amid an outbreak in Congo. The clade I strain, involved in the current outbreak, poses a higher risk of severe disease and mortality compared to the previously widespread clade II strain. The infected individual in Sweden had traveled from Africa, highlighting the strain’s transmission through close contact.
Ukraine has launched a successful incursion into Russian territory, capturing over 80 settlements in the Kursk region, including the key town of Sudzha. This move is part of Ukraine’s strategy to target Russian military infrastructure and weaken Moscow’s grip on its own regions. Despite the success, Ukrainian authorities in the eastern town of Pokrovsk are urging evacuations due to the advancing Russian military. Ukraine’s actions aim to demonstrate that Russian control is vulnerable and that Moscow cannot dictate terms in the conflict.
The United States, Qatar, and Egypt have proposed a cease-fire plan between Israel and Hamas, which they hope will end the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Recent talks in Doha have brought the sides closer to an agreement, with more negotiations planned in Cairo. The plan involves a hostage exchange and aims to address humanitarian issues in Gaza. However, the success of the agreement remains uncertain as Hamas accuses Israel of prolonging the war. Israel asserts that it adheres to previous agreements, emphasizing the necessity of Hamas accepting these terms to progress.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced he will not seek re-election as leader of his party in September, setting the stage for a new prime minister amidst domestic scandals and economic challenges. Kishida cited the need for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to renew its public image and internal practices. His decision comes at a critical time as Japan faces strategic regional issues, including tensions with China and a weakening yen. The move follows U.S. efforts to strengthen ties with Japan to counter China’s influence in Asia.
The Call
We have a new all time high for gold to start the week. With inflation still hanging tough, a September rate cut is probably 50/50. We believe the range over the next 2 weeks is 2550.00 on the high side down to 2350.00 on the low end. There is not much in the way of key economic indicators this week so this would suggest gold is overbought and should correct back towards 2450.00 or lower.
Last Week in Review
Gold opened at 2430.90 on Sunday evening and moved down a few dollars to make the weekly low of 2423.40 just before midnight. Gold then rallied strongly to 2478.00 by 8:00 PM Monday evening. Gold range traded between 2478.00 down to 2458.00. Gold weakened from here on Wednesdays CPI numbers and dropped down to 2437.00 before a recover started and the rally lasted until Thursdays plethora of economic indicators took the price south again. We then began a drive higher which took us to fresh new highs on Friday afternoon closing at 2507.00 a couple of dollars below the new all time closing high of 2509.00.
Silver has not performed as well as gold has lately but still put in a reasonable rally by Friday afternoon as it followed gold lower in a similar pattern after opening at 27.485 Sunday evening. Range trading through until Thursday morning and the rally started along with golds and silver finished the week just over 29.00. The weekly close was a penny lower than the weekly high of 29.025.
- The U.S. Dollar Index was down a little for the week again and finished at 102.46.
- The Gold/Silver Ratio strengthened this week, finishing at 86.4 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold.
Last Week’s Price Ranges
| Market | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 2430.90 | 27.48 |
| High | 2509.00 | 29.02 |
| Low | 2423.40 | 27.16 |
| Close | 2507.00 | 29.01 |
The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.
