Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 130

Reports of Note Due This Week

This week offers data on inflation, housing and retail sales.

• Monday, Aug 12 – 2:00 PM. Monthly U.S. federal budget for July.
• Tuesday Aug 13 – At 6:00 AM we start the day with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July. Then at 8:30 the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released for July. Expected to come in unchanged at 0.2%. Also Core PPI, PPI year over year and Core PPI year over year.
• Wednesday Aug 14 – At 8:30, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July will be released and is expected to be up 0.2%. Also Core CPI, CPI year over year and Core CPI year over year.
• Thursday August 15 – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM. They are expected to be slightly higher at 235,000 versus last weeks 233,000. Also, at 8:30 AM we see the release of the Empire State manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, U.S. retail sales and the Import price index. Then at 9:15 A.M. we see the release of both Industrial production and Capacity utilization. Business inventories round out the morning indicators at 10:00 A.M.
• Friday August 16 – 8:30 A.M. sees the release of Housing Starts and Building Permits. At 10:00 A.M. Consumer sentiment and home builder confidence.

Geopolitics

Democratic nominee Kamala Harris introduced Tim Walz as her vice presidential choice at a rally in Pennsylvania. Amid political upheaval following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump and Joe Biden ending his campaign, Harris swiftly chose Walz, hoping his Midwestern, veteran, and progressive background will appeal broadly, especially in critical states. The selection, praised by diverse political figures, aims to solidify Democratic support in the Midwest and counter Trump’s focus there. The announcement spurred significant campaign donations and set the stage for a rigorous electoral battle as both parties nominees have set their running mates.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer held an emergency meeting in response to widespread far-right riots triggered by misinformation about a recent stabbing incident. The violence, which included attacks on hotels housing asylum-seekers and clashes with police, led to numerous arrests. In an effort to curb the chaos, Starmer vowed to confront the far-right violence with strict law enforcement measures. The government also planned to enhance security at mosques and other vulnerable locations in reaction to the unrest and disinformation circulating online.

Japan’s stock market saw a rebound, with the Nikkei 225 and the Topix both registering around 9% gains after heavy losses in the previous session. This rally pulled both indexes back into positive territory for the year. Market recovery was influenced by a diverse set of factors including the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike, a weaker yen, and strong performances in key sectors like trading houses and technology. South Korea and Australia’s markets also experienced gains, reflecting a broader recovery in the Asia-Pacific region.

Muhammad Yunus, who initiated the global microcredit movement and won the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize, has assumed leadership of Bangladesh’s caretaker government following weeks of intense violence. This turmoil prompted the resignation and flight of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Yunus aims to stabilize the nation and prepare for new elections, emphasizing a return to democracy and human rights. His administration, supported by students and including advisors from the protests, seeks to address the power vacuum and violence that escalated after Hasina’s departure. Yunus’s role is pivotal in transitioning Bangladesh back to democratic governance amidst widespread unrest and communal violence.