Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 129

Reports of Note Due This Week

After a weaker than expected jobs report and worries about the economy rattled the equity and metals market on Friday, investors will get fresh data on the services sector and consumer credit levels this week.

• Monday, Aug t 9:45 AM. Sees the release of the S&P final U.S. services PMI followed by the ISM services at 10:00 AM.
• Tuesday Aug 6 – At 8:30 AM we get the figures on the U.S. Trade deficit for June..
• Wednesday Aug 7 – At 300 PM we see the release of consumer credit for June..
• Thursday August 8 – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM. Last week, they were unexpectedly higher by 14,000 coming in at 249,000. Then at 10:00 AM we get the wholesale inventories for June.
• Friday August 9 – None scheduled.

Geopolitics

Japanese stocks confirmed a bear market, with major indexes like the Nikkei 225 and Topix falling sharply, exceeding a 20% drop from their recent highs. This decline marked one of the worst performance days since 1987, with the Nikkei alone dropping over 12% in a single day. The sharp declines in Asian markets are part of a broader global market downturn, influenced by various international economic factors, including key economic data releases from China and central bank decisions from Australia and India. Additionally, currency movements saw the yen strengthening significantly against the dollar.

Foreign ministers from the Quad nations—Australia, India, Japan, and the United States—expressed significant concerns about the South China Sea’s escalating tensions after their meeting in Tokyo. They criticized coercive and intimidating actions in the region and pledged to enhance maritime security to uphold a “free and open maritime order.” This includes initiatives for improving regional domain awareness and establishing a maritime legal dialogue. The discussions underscored a commitment to ensuring freedom of navigation and lawful maritime commerce amid challenges posed by China’s assertive actions in contested waters.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner of the presidential election, leading to widespread protests and international skepticism about the legitimacy of the results. Opposition leader Edmundo González, supported by María Corina Machado, claimed victory with a significant margin according to independent exit polls. The U.S. and other nations expressed concerns about the fairness of the vote amid reports of voter intimidation and irregularities. The election has heightened tensions, with allegations of a potential hack of the electoral commission and ongoing investigations into these claims.

Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, and journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, all American detainees, have returned to the U.S. after being released from Russian captivity. This exchange involved swapping these three Americans and 13 other detainees for eight Russians held by various countries. The prisoner exchange, one of the largest since the Cold War, was coordinated across seven countries and involved intense diplomatic negotiations. President Biden and Vice President Harris welcomed the Americans upon their arrival, emphasizing the significant diplomatic efforts that facilitated their return.