Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 126

Reports of Note Due This Week

Investors will be paying attention to the Republican National Convention which begins on Monday and continues until Thursday. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will speak at the convention this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at 12:00 noon on Monday. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will be released on Wednesday and investors will also receive data on retail sales , housing starts and business inventories this week.

• Monday, July 15 – At 8:30 the Empire State manufacturing index will be released. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 12:00 noon..
• Tuesday July 16 – U.S. Retail Sales will be released at 8:30 A.M. along with the import price index.
• Wednesday July 17 – At 8:30, we see the release of housing starts and building permits. Then at 9:15, it is Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. At 2:00 P.M., the Federal Reserves Beige Book will be released.
• Thursday July 18 – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM. They are expected to come in at 228,000, slightly higher than last weeks 222,000. Also being released is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for June and the Republican National Convention concludes with remarks from Donald Trump.
• Friday July 19 – No major economic news today.

Geopolitics

During a rally in Pennsylvania, an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump occurred when a gunman, identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, shot from a nearby roof. Trump was slightly injured, and a spectator was killed. The Secret Service is investigating how Crooks accessed such a close position and whether explosives found in his vehicle were part of the plot. Crooks died during the incident, and the FBI is treating the shooting as potential domestic terrorism. In response, President Joe Biden emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and rejecting political violence in a national address.

A Russian court has ordered the arrest of Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, charging her with alleged involvement in an extremist group. This order is part of a broader crackdown on opposition in Russia. Navalny, who was a vocal critic of President Putin, died under suspicious circumstances in prison, leading Navalnaya to accuse Putin of responsibility for her husband’s death. The charges against Navalnaya are linked to the government’s designation of Navalny’s anti-corruption organization as extremist. This crackdown has intensified since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Taiwan is closely monitoring the Chinese military as it conducts exercises with the Shandong aircraft carrier in the Pacific, coinciding with a NATO summit in Washington. Taiwan’s defense ministry reported detecting 66 Chinese military aircraft around the island recently. China’s military activities are seen as a threat to regional stability, and Taiwan has accused China of using “grey zone” tactics to pressure Taiwanese forces. The NATO summit’s draft declaration has criticized China’s support for Russia in Ukraine and its challenges to European security.

President Emmanuel Macron declined the resignation of France’s Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, asking him to stay on temporarily after a chaotic election left no political faction close to a majority, risking governmental paralysis. The decision followed an unexpected and turbulent election resulting from Macron’s gamble to call snap elections, which did not clarify but rather complicated the political landscape ahead of the Paris Olympics. Amidst this uncertainty, Macron’s party faces significant challenges, including potentially sharing power with the far-right or leftist coalitions, both of which could influence France’s domestic and international policies significantly.