Stylized representation of the movement of the price of gold.

Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 117

Site icon for Guardian Gold     Issue 117 – The Week of May 13, 2024

Key Resistance and Supports this Week

SupportResistance
2330.002400.00
2277.802448.00
2238.002500.00
2190.002550.00
SupportResistance
27.8129.16
26.6029.98
26.0231.00
25.0232.00

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Reports of Note Due This Week

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will indicate if inflation continues its upward ascent or is heading down closer to the Feds target of 2%. Investors will be watching closely. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver remarks at an event in The Netherlands.

  • Monday, May 13 – None scheduled.
  • Tuesday May 14 – The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released at 8:30 AM and is expected to have increased to 0.3% from 0.2%.
  • Wednesday May 15 – at 8:30 AM we see the release of the Consumer Price Index for April and a rise from 0.3% to 0.4% is expected. Core CPI is expected to show the opposite with a drop to 0.3% from 0.4%. Also at 8:30 comes the release of U.S. Retail Sales for April and The Empire State manufacturing survey (May). These are followed at 10:00 AM with business inventories to round out a busy morning.
  • Thursday May 16 – sees the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM. They are expected to come in at 219,000, down from last weeks 231,000. Also, at 8:30 we see the release of the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, housing starts, building permits and the import price index. Then at 9:15 it is Industrial production and capacity utilization.
  • Friday May 17 – At 10:00 A.M., we see the release of U.S. leading economic indicators for April..

Geopolitics

Russia plans to hold military drills simulating the use of tactical nuclear weapons in response to what it perceives as provocative statements from Western officials regarding its conflict with Ukraine. This is the first public announcement of such exercises, which involve lower-yield nuclear weapons designed for battlefield use. The drills, ordered by President Putin, aim to boost the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces and will include units from the missile forces, air force, and navy. The announcement heightens tensions amid ongoing Western support for Ukraine, with recent threats by France and the UK to escalate their military involvement, potentially deepening the conflict. Vladimir Putin was also sworn in for his fifth term as Russia’s president in a lavish ceremony at the Kremlin this week. At 71, Putin, who has been in power since 2000, vowed to serve the Russian people and overcome all obstacles. Putin’s re-election followed an effectively uncontested vote in March, further tightening his long-standing control amidst Russia’s deepening global isolation and increased domestic repression.

Israel reacted strongly to President Joe Biden’s threat to cut off weapons supplies if it proceeds with a full-scale assault on Rafah in Gaza, where over a million Palestinians are sheltering. This shift in U.S. stance follows halted bomb shipments and rising domestic pressure on Biden to adopt a tougher stance on the war. Israeli officials, expressing disappointment and defiance, vowed to continue their military campaign against Hamas. Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized Israel’s readiness to stand alone if necessary, while other officials criticized Biden’s actions as harmful to Israel’s national security. The tension highlights the complex dynamics between U.S. military aid and Israeli military actions.

During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Hungary, he and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán signed several agreements to deepen economic and cultural ties. This visit is part of Xi’s European tour, emphasizing Hungary’s role as a strategic partner in the EU for China. Hungary, under Orbán’s leadership, has welcomed significant Chinese investment, including plans for China’s BYD to establish its first European electric vehicle factory there. The agreements also include Hungary’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to enhance connections between China and Europe, particularly through infrastructure projects like railway development. Orbán highlighted Hungary’s pivot towards more diverse global partnerships, reflecting a shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world order.

The Call

Gold had a stellar week rallying from the open on Sunday night through the entire week to close firmly on Friday afternoon. As this action has caused us to feel that gold is about to explode higher, this emotion is wrong most of the time. The high last week of 2385.30 will be a key resistance level and we would expect gold to again drift lower towards 2300.00 in the short term and possibly retreating to 2225.00. Until gold breaks above 2385.30 gold we expect gold to trade in a sideways range between 2225.00 and 2385.00. 


Last Week in Review

Gold opened near its weekly low at 2305.40 Sunday evening and rallied the rest of the week making its high of 2377.90 before closing at 2359.40 Friday afternoon.

Silver opened at 26.59 on Sunday evening and dipped to 26.44 shortly after the open. Like gold, silver rallied the rest of the week to make a high of 28.785 Friday afternoon before pulling back a little to close Friday at 28.17. A very strong week for both silver and gold.

Last Week’s Price Ranges

MarketGoldSilver
Open2318.7026.59
High2377.9028.78
Low2305.
40
26.44
Close2359.8028.17

The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.

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