Stylized representation of the movement of the price of gold.

Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 115

Site icon for Guardian Gold     Issue 115 – The Week of April 29, 2024

Key Resistance and Supports this Week

SupportResistance
2304.002459.00
2274.202403.00
2235.002437.00
2200.002500.00
SupportResistance
26.7127.75
26.0028.64
25.1329.90
24.7931.25

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Reports of Note Due This Week

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The week concludes with the nonfarm payrolls report as investors will watch to see if the economy can continue to surprise with another jobs increase.

  • Monday, April 29 – None scheduled.
  • Tuesday May 1 – At9:00 AM we see the release of the S&P Case-Shiller home price index followed at 10:00 with consumer confidence for April.
  • Wednesday May 2 – at 8:15 AM we see the release of the ADP employment report which is expected to rise to 200,000 jobs created from 184,000. Then at 10.00AM we see construction spending, ISM manufacturing and Job openings for March. Then the big one at 2:00 PM when the FOMC interest rate-decision is released followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powells press conference at 2:30 PM.
  • Thursday May 3 – sees the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM. They are expected to come in at 210,000 up from last weeks 207,000. Also, at 8:30 we see the U.S. trade deficit, U.S. productivity and U.S. unit-labor costs.
  • Friday May 4 – The big one for the week, the U.S.  unemployment report for April, is expected to show a decrease in jobs to 250,000 from 303,000.

Geopolitics

Hamas is reviewing a new Israeli proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza, facilitated by Egypt’s mediation efforts aimed at preventing an Israeli ground offensive in Rafah. This development follows a high-level Egyptian delegation’s discussions in Israel, focusing on a ceasefire that would allow significant numbers of displaced Palestinians to return home with minimal restrictions. The proposal includes a limited exchange of hostages and Palestinian prisoners. Despite this, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has so far rejected the terms, which align with many of Hamas’ demands. The situation remains tense as international pressure grows for a ceasefire, amid ongoing Israeli preparations for a potential offensive in Rafah, which could exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation in Gaza.

The Japanese yen has reached a new 34-year low, falling past 155 against the U.S. dollar, driven by the strength of the dollar and anticipation of continued low interest rates in Japan. This drop comes as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) prepares for its upcoming monetary policy decision, with expectations low for any significant change in policy. Despite verbal interventions by Japanese authorities aimed at supporting the yen, market forces dominated by a strong dollar and high U.S. inflation expectations continue to drive the yen’s depreciation. Analysts speculate about potential coordinated interventions with other countries like South Korea but anticipate that immediate, substantial actions by the BOJ or the Ministry of Finance are unlikely.

The U.S. has supplied Ukraine with long-range ATACMS ballistic missiles, which have been used twice against Russian forces. This support, confirmed by the Biden administration, was part of a secret $300 million military aid package. These missiles enable Ukraine to target Russian military positions in Crimea and other previously unreachable areas. The revelation came as President Biden signed a foreign aid package providing $61 billion for Ukraine. This move aims to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities against ongoing Russian aggression, while maintaining operational security and caution to avoid escalating the conflict with Russia. The U.S. stipulates that these missiles must not be used to strike inside Russia, focusing on sovereign Ukrainian territory.

The Call

Last week gold opened near the high of the week and immediately sold off, dropping below 2300.00 before recovering about 50.00. Our call expecting  a pull back in the price of gold to the 2250.00 support zone over the next few weeks seems probable and it is possible for the low to be nearer to 2200.00. With the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday coupled with the nonfarm payrolls on Friday, this should provide volatility for both gold and silver this week. We are still bullish on gold but feel a short-term dip would be very healthy for the market.


Last Week in Review

Gold opened near its weekly high at 2391.70 Sunday evening and immediately started to sell off. The selling continued through to Tuesday morning where the weekly low was recorded at 2292.60. Gold then bounced 20.00 to 60.00 trading in a sideways range until the close Friday afternoon at 2337.70.

Silver opened at 28.79 on Sunday evening and followed golds direction making its weekly low also on Tuesday morning and bouncing to close at 27.235 Friday afternoon.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index finished a little weaker for the week at 105.94.
  • The Gold/Silver Ratio weakened this week to settle at 86.0 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold.

Last Week’s Price Ranges

MarketGoldSilver
Open2391.7028.79
High2393.0028.79
Low2292.6026.71
Close2337.7027.23

The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.

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