Guardian Weekly Market Report 113

Stylized representation of the movement of the price of gold.

Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 113

Site icon for Guardian Gold     Issue 113 – The Week of April 15, 2024

Key Resistance and Supports this Week

SupportResistance
2268.502379.00
2230.002432.00
2175.002480.00
2120.002545.00
SupportResistance
27.6428.50
27.0029.75
26.5031.00
26.0032.50

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Reports of Note Due This Week

Investors will get updates on regional conditions with the New York and Philadelphia business surveys. The beige book comes out on Wednesday and we will also see U.S. Retail sales, housing starts, industrial production and a few others this week.

  • Monday, April 15 – We see the NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey and U.S. Retail Sales at 8:30 AM. At 10:00 AM, Business inventories will be released along with Home Builders confidence index.
  • Tuesday April 16 – At 8:30 AM we see the release of Housing starts and Building permits for March. Both are expected to be a little softer. At 9:15 AM comes Industrial Production expected to be stronger at 0.4% vs 0.1%  and Capacity Utilization to nudge higher to 78.5%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 1:15 PM.
  • Wednesday April 17 – at 2:00 PM the Fed’s Beige Book will be released.
  • Thursday April 18 – sees the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM. They are expected to come in at 210,000 down from last weeks 211,000. Also, at 8:30 the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey will be released and is expected to fall back to 0.0% from the previous 3.2%. Then at 10:00 AM we see the release of Existing Home sales projected to fall to 4.11 million from 4.38 million and U.S. Leading economic indicators also expected to soften to 0.0% from 0.1%.
  • Friday April 19 – None scheduled.

Geopolitics

Iran launched a significant aerial attack on Israel, deploying at least 300 drones and missiles, in what is described as the first direct assault from Iranian territory after years of covert conflict. This attack followed an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, killing several Iranian commanders. The attack mostly failed, with Israel intercepting the vast majority of the threats. Leaders from the G7 have called for restraint, fearing regional escalation, while the UN urged both sides to de-escalate. The U.S. reinforced Israel’s defensive stance, although it advised against retaliation. Iran declared the retaliatory phase over but warned it could escalate depending on Israel’s response.

During her four-day visit to China, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlighted the need for Beijing to adjust its industrial and economic policies, citing concerns about China’s industrial overcapacity which is perceived as being heavily subsidized and undercutting global competitors. In talks with Chinese officials, including Premier Li Qiang and Vice Premier He Lifeng, Yellen discussed broader economic strategies without elaborating on specific U.S. measures to protect American jobs. The discussions also touched on boosting domestic demand in China to counteract overcapacity issues. Additionally, Yellen and Chinese officials agreed to enhance cooperation on financial regulation and anti-money laundering, as well as maintaining open lines of communication to manage differences and ensure financial stability. These talks are set to continue at the upcoming International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C.

Russian military trainers have landed in Niger, bringing security supplies and aiming to assist Nigerien forces amid a worsening jihadi insurgency. This follows Niger’s decision to distance itself from U.S. military support, despite having not yet expelled American troops. The shift towards Russia occurred after discussions between Niger’s military junta, which took power in July, and President Vladimir Putin, highlighting Niger’s intent to diversify its military partnerships and increase sovereignty. Previously, the U.S. had been a primary trainer of Nigerien forces and still maintains around 650 troops in the country, critical for Sahel region counterterrorism efforts. This change is part of a broader pattern of increased Russian influence in Africa.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt led a U.S. carrier strike group in a three-day joint military exercise with Japan and South Korea in the East China Sea, coinciding with diplomatic talks at the White House between U.S. President Joe Biden and leaders from Japan and the Philippines. The exercises aimed to strengthen alliances in response to China’s aggressive regional actions, involving guided missile destroyers and focused on undersea warfare, search and rescue, and improving communication. This show of unity also reflects improved relations between Japan and South Korea. These maneuvers are part of broader U.S. efforts to enhance security collaborations in the Indo-Pacific amidst significant geopolitical tensions, particularly in the contested South China Sea.

The Call

Gold made another new high of 2431.60 midday Friday only to come into heavy selling at the close. The close of 2343.00 was 88.60 lower than the days high. The tensions between Israel and Iran are reaching a boiling point as the world looks to the Middle East. Our call is a for gold to mount a rally towards last weeks all time high a come up against a wall of profit taking. This should result in a small correction down towards 2200.00 – 2225.00. Mind you, if Israel and Iran situation continues to escalate, we could see new highs in the very near future.


Last Week in Review

Gold opened at 2326.40 Sunday evening and dipped to make the weekly low at 2304.60 early in the evening. We then traded in a range between 2330.00 – 2380.00 until gold broke upwards Thursday midday. A strong rally to yet another new high (2431.60) continued until midday Friday when the wheels fell off!  Gold and silver sold off steadily the rest of the day with gold hitting a low of 2332.90 late Friday afternoon and closed at 2343.00 which was almost 89.00 lower than a few hours before.

Silver opened at 27.49 on Sunday evening and traded a little lower before range trading from 27.75 and 28.50 until Thursday’s breakout. A strong rally like golds took us to new recent highs of 29.90 before selling or profit taking began and lasted all afternoon on Friday resulting in a close at 27.905 which was 1.93 lower than at midday!

  • The U.S. Dollar Index finished much higher on the week at 106.04.
  • The Gold/Silver Ratio narrowed again this week at 83.9 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold.

Last Week’s Price Ranges

MarketGoldSilver
Open2326.4027.46
High2431.6029.84
Low2304.6026.90
Close2343.0027.90

The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.

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