Guardian Weekly Market Report 112

Stylized representation of the movement of the price of gold.

Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 112

Site icon for Guardian Gold     Issue 112 – The Week of April 8, 2024

Key Resistance and Supports this Week

SupportResistance
2266.502355.00
2227.202417.00
2151.002480.00
2118.002542.00
SupportResistance
26.5028.12
26.0029.00
25.5029.68
25.0030.00

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Reports of Note Due This Week

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be released on Wednesday. Investors will also be paying attention to Federal Reserve speakers, Fed meeting minutes along with consumer sentiment survey results.

  • Monday, April 8 – None scheduled.
  • Tuesday April 9 – at 6:00 AM sees the release of the NFIB small business optimism index for March.
  • Wednesday April 10 – at 8:30 AM starts with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI followed by Wholesale inventories at 10:00 AM. At 2:00 PM we see the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.
  • Thursday April 11 – sees the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM. They are expected to come in at 215,000 down from last weeks 221,000. Also, at 8:30 we see the release of the Producer Price index which consensus has it down to 0.3% from 0.6%.
  • Friday April 12 – at 10:00 AM we see the  Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index .

Geopolitics

Former President Donald Trump has posted a $175 million bond in the New York civil fraud case, preventing seizure of his assets while the case is under appeal. The bond amount was reduced from the original $464 million judgment. If Trump loses the appeal, he will have to pay over $450 million from the judgment. Trump is also appealing an $83 million verdict in a defamation lawsuit and faces charges in other criminal cases, all of which he has pleaded not guilty to.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen began her official meetings in China with discussions on overcapacity concerns and the need for market-oriented reforms. She emphasized the importance of close communication on issues such as overcapacity and national security-related economic actions. Yellen stressed the need for a level playing field for firms and workers in both countries and highlighted the importance of collaboration on climate change and debt distress in emerging markets. Yellen met with Chinese officials in Guangzhou and is scheduled to meet with officials in Beijing, including Premier Li Qiang and Finance Minister Lan Fo’an. Her visit comes amid tensions between the U.S. and China, with both governments seeking to increase communication.

The Israeli military has reduced its ground troops in southern Gaza following the conclusion of its operation in Khan Younis, shifting towards a more long-term counterterrorism strategy. The move, which includes the withdrawal of the 98th commando division, is seen as a turning point in the Gaza campaign. Remaining forces are focused on preserving operational freedom and conducting targeted raids. The reduction does not appear to be a simple rotation and may indicate a shift in strategy. The U.S. has urged Israel to reduce civilian harm and humanitarian suffering, emphasizing no ground invasion in Rafah. International pressure for a ceasefire and negotiations for a hostage deal continue amidst ongoing conflict.

A 7.4-magnitude earthquake in Taiwan killed at least 10 people and left hundreds injured, trapped, or missing. Most trapped individuals were in a hotel and activity center in Taroko National Park. Rescue efforts focused on those stranded on a damaged highway into Hualien. Six people trapped in a mining area were rescued by helicopter. Twenty-six hotel workers were found, with others waving for help near a crushed minibus. Taiwan has improved earthquake preparedness since 1999, with strict building codes and public education, resulting in fewer casualties compared to similar quakes in other countries. Lessons from Taiwan’s approach could benefit disaster planning globally.

The Call

Gold again made another all-time high last week closing at 2329.50 while silver started to play catch-up with an approximate 10% rally to close at 27.50 an ounce. (Our expectations are for a continuation of the rally with gold targeting 2375.00 per ounce over the next couple of weeks while silver works to break 26.00 an ounce. If silver can break above 26.00, we look for a quick rally towards 28.00.) Our statement last week in brackets sums up our feeling and think gold will make its high Monday with the Eclipse and pull back from here temporarily. It may prove to be a market high until the next run develops.


Last Week in Review

The job market added 303,000 jobs in March, crushing expectations of adding 200,000 and continued a trend of showing the economy is running hotter than expected despite high interest rates.  Gold opened at 2239.50 Sunday evening and dipped to make the weekly low at 2229.30 Monday morning. Gold then traded steadily higher the rest of the week and made another new all time high of 2330.40 coming into the close of trade Friday  afternoon and finished at 2329.50.

Silver opened at 26.96 on Sunday evening and traded in a higher most of the week making the weekly high at 27.51 Friday afternoon also going into the close.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index finished little changed on the week at 104.30.
  • The Gold/Silver Ratio narrowed significantly for the week at 84.7 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold.

Last Week’s Price Ranges

MarketGoldSilver
Open2239.5026.96
High2330.4027.51
Low2229.3026.96
Close2329.5027.50

The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.

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