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Issue 109 – The week of March 18th, 2024

Key Resistance and Supports: Upcoming Week

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Reports of Note due out this week:

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  will meet this week and is widely expected to keep it’s fed funds interest rate at 5.00% to 5.25%

  • Monday, March 18 at 10:00, we see the home builder confidence index for Feb.
  • Tuesday March 19 at 8:30 AM, we see the release of housing starts and building permits for February. Both are expected to be a little stronger than January. 
  • Wednesday March 20, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces it’s interest rate decision at 2:00 PM and is followed at 2:30 by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
  • Thursday March 21 sees the weekly Initial Jobless claims at 8:30 AM. They are expected to increase marginally to 214,000 from last weeks 209,000. At 8:30 A.M., we see the release of the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey which is expected to show a drop of -4.0. At 9:45 we see the release of both the S&P Flash U.S. services PMI and S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI for February. Then 10:00 A.M. brings us U.S. leading economic indicators and Existing home sales.
  • Friday March 22 None scheduled.


Ukraine launched of a significant wave of drone attacks on Russia during Russia’s presidential vote. The Russian Defense Ministry reported downing 35 Ukrainian drones overnight, including some in the Moscow region. The attacks targeted various regions bordering Ukraine, as well as areas farther away such as Moscow and the Yaroslavl region, about 500 miles from the Ukrainian border. The attacks followed earlier drone raids and other attacks over the past few days. Ukraine also reported that Russian forces launched missiles at Ukrainian-controlled areas. The war in Ukraine has entered its third year, with both sides engaging in attacks and counterattacks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin won a landslide victory in a stage-managed presidential election with no real opposition, extending his rule for at least another six years. The election, orchestrated to legitimize Putin’s leadership, saw him receive 87.32% of the vote, with a reported turnout of 74%. The election took place amid a crackdown on dissent and as Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its third year. The opposition has been decimated, with its leader, Alexei Navalny, dead and his supporters facing repression. Despite this, Navalny’s team called for protests, leading to some demonstrations and incidents of unrest. The Kremlin sought to use the election to claim a wave of support for Putin and his policies, including the war in Ukraine. Putin’s victory allows him to continue his rule, which began in 2000 and could now extend until at least 2036.

Niger’s military government has ended a 2012 agreement with the US allowing US military personnel and civilian staff to operate in Niger. This decision follows a deterioration in relations since the military junta took power in July 2023, designated as a coup by the US. The US has withdrawn many troops from Niger, but Pentagon officials see a continued presence as crucial for regional counterterrorism. The move comes after a US delegation’s visit, which Nigerien officials criticized for disrespecting diplomatic norms and attempting to influence Niger’s partnerships. The government of Niger accused the US of a condescending attitude and denied allegations of a secret deal with Russia and Iran.

The Call

The gold market held support in the $2,150 area this week and looks to be consolidating, preparing for a run at the all-time highs. We may test the 2100.00 level on a spike lower early in the week, but we would expect higher numbers midweek as the FOMC meeting wraps up Wednesday afternoon. If we can take out the highs around $2,200 a rally to test $2,250 would be likely. Silver has been behaving a lot better lately with the Gold/Silver ratio narrowing to the 85 to 1 area. A strong performance could propel this ratio into the mid 70’s over the next few months. We are looking for gold to rally towards $2,250 – $2,300 and silver to approach $27.00 – $28.00

Last Week in Review

Gold opened Sunday evening at 2183.40 spot which was roughly 100.00 higher than last Sunday nights open. Gold then traded higher to 2193.30 by midnight and then began drifting lower into Tuesday afternoon making the weekly low of 2152.00. We traded sideways into Friday afternoon and closed at 2155.20

Silver opened at 24.41 on Sunday evening and traded sideways until it dipped Tuesday midday to make the weekly low of 24.05. From here silver had a very nice rally through to Friday afternoon making the high of 25.59 before closing at 25.23

  • The U.S. Dollar Index finished higher on the week at 103.43.
  • The Gold/Silver Ratio closed a stronger for the week at 85.6 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold.
Last Week’s Gold and Silver Ranges

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The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.

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