Guardian Weekly Market Report 105

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Issue 105 – The week of February 19th, 2024

Key Resistance and Supports: Upcoming Week

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Reports of Note due out this week:

U.S. financial markets are closed today for the Presidents Day Holiday. There a very few economic indicators out this week. The Federal Reserve will release minutes from the central bank’s policy meeting in January. This should provide more insight into official’s stance on interest rates..

  • Monday the market is closed for the Presidents Day Holiday.
  • Tuesday will be quiet with just the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 10:00 AM.
  • On Wednesday , the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the January minutes at 2:00 P.M.
  • Thursday morning sees the weekly Initial Jobless claims at 8:30 AM. They are expected to rise to 216,000 from last weeks 212,000. At 9:45, we see the S&P flash services PMI(Feb) and S&P flash manufacturing PMI (Feb). Existing home sales will be released at 10:00 A.M.
  • Friday there are none scheduled.


Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has died in prison at the age of 47, according to the country’s prison service. Navalny, a prominent critic of President Vladimir Putin, survived several poisoning attempts and was serving a 30 ½-year jail sentence. His death comes amid Western outrage, with President Joe Biden blaming Putin. Navalny’s wife, Yulia, called for justice, while Western leaders condemned Putin. Navalny’s death leaves Russia’s opposition without a clear leader, with Putin’s critics either dead, jailed, or in exile. Navalny’s anti-corruption investigations and opposition to the Kremlin made him a significant figure in Russian politics. Despite his imprisonment, Navalny continued to challenge Putin, detailing prison conditions and promoting anti-corruption efforts. His death has sparked international condemnation and calls for accountability.

Ukraine is withdrawing troops from parts of Avdiivka, an eastern town crucial for Russia’s control of Donbas, as heavy fighting continues. Battle-hardened fighters from the Third Assault Brigade have joined the battle. Russia aims to encircle and capture Avdiivka to secure control of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, showcasing a battlefield victory for Putin’s re-election bid. Ukrainian forces are outnumbered and outgunned, facing critical shortages of artillery rounds. President Zelenskyy seeks urgent military assistance from the U.S. and European allies. Avdiivka’s strategic importance lies in its proximity to Donetsk, and its capture would significantly strengthen Russia’s position in the region.

The situation in Gaza remains dire, with Palestinians in Rafah attempting to flee amid warnings of a potential Israeli assault. The U.N. has stated it will not assist in evacuation efforts if such an assault occurs. Israel is facing pressure to take stronger action on its border with Lebanon after a deadly rocket attack. The U.S. State Department is reviewing reports of civilian harm in Gaza, and President Biden has expressed frustration with Israel’s conduct. Talks in Cairo for a cease-fire and hostage deal have ended without an agreement. The death toll in Gaza has surpassed 28,400, with thousands more injured or missing. Israel has reported at least 232 soldiers killed during the ground invasion of Gaza.

The Call

Gold traded lower this week and broke through support at 2000.00 and made a new near-term low of 1984.50 spot. This was caused by the hotter than expected CPI and PPI numbers last week which indicated higher inflation resulting in the view interest rates are not going lower for now! If the interest rates remain high at over 5% there is no rush to invest in precious metals. Most talk of cuts in interest rates have been pushed out to later in the year. Without lower rates it is unlikely gold will begin its rally and our expected short-term range on the gold price is 1950.00 to 2050.00. It is wise not to fight the tide of rising Treasury yields and a higher U.S. dollar.

Last Week in Review

Gold opened Sunday evening at 2026.00 spot and then traded higher to 2035.00 on a bounce Monday morning on some economic news. After the news, gold range traded until the CPI number was released Tuesday morning. The CPI number was much hotter than expected and gold along with a plethora of other commodities sold off sharply through the day and finally made its weekly low Wednesday morning hitting 1984.50. Gold then traded sideways to higher and eventually recovered around 50% of the down move to close Friday afternoon at 2013.20. Not the best of weeks for gold.

Silver opened at 22.60 on Sunday evening and drifted higher to 23.12 before traded sideways into the CPI number Tuesday morning. Like gold, silver sold off close to a dollar before bottoming Wednesday morning at 21.97. Silver the began a rally that moved the metal up around a dollar and a half to close Friday afternoon at 23.48. The high of the week came in near the close on Friday afternoon at 23.56. A much better week for silver than the gold!

  • The U.S. Dollar Index finished mildly firmer on the week at 104.28.
  • The Gold/Silver Ratio closed a lot stronger for the week at 86.1 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold.
Last Week’s Gold and Silver Ranges

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The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.

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