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Issue 104 – The week of February 12th, 2024

Key Resistance and Supports: Upcoming Week

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Reports of Note due out this week:

This week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released Tuesday. Market watchers will tune in for the latest inflation numbers as the Federal Reserve officials watch for signals on interest cuts. Retail sales numbers on Thursday will help show if consumers continued their strong shopping habits in January.

  • Monday kicks off the week with the monthly U.S. federal budget for January at 2:00 PM.
  • Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released AT 8:30 for January. This should offer some clues as to whether price growth continues to slow. Also out is Core CPI and year over year Core CPI.
  • On Wednesday there are no reports of note scheduled.
  • Thursday morning sees the weekly Initial Jobless claims at 8:30 AM. along with U.S. Retail Sales, Import price index, the Empire State manufacturing survey, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey. Industrial production and Capacity utilization will be released at 9:15 AM followed by the Home Builder Confidence Index for February at 10:00 AM.
  • Friday will be busy with Housing Starts, Building Permits and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January being released at 8:30 AM followed by Consumer sentiment at 10:00 AM.


A landslide in the southern Philippines near a gold mine in Maco town has claimed 54 lives, according to the provincial government. The incident occurred near a site operated by Apex Mining, burying homes and vehicles. Rescue workers are facing challenges due to heavy rain, thick mud, and the risk of further landslides. Despite the difficult conditions, over 300 people are involved in rescue efforts. The death toll may rise as the search for survivors continues. The area has been affected by torrential rains, leading to floods and landslides in recent weeks.

President Joe Biden hosted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House, discussing critical global issues. They emphasized supporting Ukraine amid Russia’s aggression, with Biden calling on Congress to pass funding urgently. Scholz condemned Putin’s interview with Tucker Carlson as “ridiculous” and stressed the importance of providing aid to Ukraine. They also addressed the Israel-Hamas conflict and preparations for the upcoming NATO summit, underscoring Israel’s right to self-defense while advocating for the protection of civilians in Gaza. Scholz highlighted the severity of a potential Russian victory in Ukraine, warning of its implications for Europe and the liberal world order. The meeting occurred amidst Senate discussions on providing aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, although the legislation’s fate in Congress remains uncertain.

The Biden administration is considering recognizing an independent Palestinian state after Israel’s Gaza conflict, a significant shift from longstanding U.S. policy. This move could grant Palestinians political and symbolic power and increase pressure on Israel for peace talks. However, internal Israeli opposition exists, with concerns about security and potential attacks. Palestinians demand an end to occupation, removal of settlements, and clear borders. While the U.S. supports a two-state solution, challenges persist, including Hamas control in Gaza and Netanyahu’s opposition. Recognition could reshape geopolitics, potentially influencing Saudi normalization with Israel. Yet, uncertainties remain regarding the timing, peace negotiations, and regional dynamics amid ongoing conflict.

The Call

Gold traded in a very narrow range last week and support at 2000.00 has been holding. We believe the gold price is about to begin a rally back towards 2100.00 but not before a pullback to the 1950.00 to 1970.00 area. This pull back should begin within a few weeks and could start with some key economic indicators on inflation coming out this week. The U.S. equity markets continue making new highs and while this continues gold will drift lower. If the interest rates remain high at over 5% there is no rush to invest in gold. Most talk of cuts in interest rates have been pushed out to May and even further. Without lower rates it is unlikely gold will begin its rally to the next higher level. Our expected range on the gold price remains 1960.00 to 2060.00 for the near term.

Last Week in Review

Gold opened Sunday evening at 2042.40 spot and then traded lower into Monday morning where the weekly low of 2015.30 was made. Gold then traded quietly sideways through the rest of the week making its weekly high of 2045.60 on Wednesday and closing Friday at 2023.20. All in all, a very quiet week for gold..

Silver opened at 22.78 on Sunday evening which turned out to also be the high and traded lower into Thursday morning at 22.13  before settling at 22.66 on Friday afternoon.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index finished mildly firmer on the week at 104.11.
  • The Gold/Silver Ratio closed a little stronger for the week at 89.6 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold
Last Week’s Gold and Silver Ranges

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The information contained in this report is intended to provide market commentary and not as a recommendation or as a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed herein are the author’s and may differ from the views of others at Guardian International Gold. Guardian International Gold is a trader of Precious metals and this communication is to be considered an invitation to trade. Guardian International Gold makes our best effort to communicate reliable information but no express or implied warranty or representation as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness may be taken.

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