Guardian Weekly Market Report – Issue 191

Reports of Note Due This Week

This week is packed with high‑impact U.S. macroeconomic releases that can influence precious metals. Tuesday brings the FHFA House Price Index and Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey, giving insight into housing and consumer strength. Wednesday is the focal point as the Federal Reserve’s policy‑setting FOMC meets; the committee will announce its interest‑rate decision and Chair Powell will hold a press conference that afternoon. Thursday sees the advance estimate of Q3 GDP and durable‑goods orders, while Friday wraps up with personal income and outlays (including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index), the Employment Cost Index and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment. Together, these releases will drive expectations for the path of U.S. monetary policy and influence gold and silver prices.

• Monday – None of Note
• Tuesday 9:00 – FHFA House Price Index (Aug) & Case‑Shiller Home Price Index (Aug)
  10:00 – Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct) & Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
• Wednesday 14:00 – FOMC policy statement & interest‑rate decision (Oct 28‑29 meeting)
  14:30 – Fed Chair Powell press conference
• Thursday 8:30 – Advance estimate of Q3 GDP & durable goods orders; initial & continuing jobless claims
• Friday 8:30 – Personal Income & Outlays (incl. core PCE price index) & Employment Cost Index (Q3)
  9:45 – Chicago PMI (Oct)
  10:00 – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final Oct)

Geopolitics

The U.S. and allies are finalizing plans for an international stabilization force in Gaza to oversee demilitarization and maintain the U.S.-brokered ceasefire. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said several nations, including Indonesia, the UAE, Egypt, Qatar, and Azerbaijan, have offered to participate, though specifics on the force’s mandate and rules of engagement are still being negotiated. Israel has insisted it will have final approval over which countries are allowed to take part, with Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasizing that only forces “acceptable” to Israel will be included. President Trump said deployment could happen “pretty quickly” as countries begin selecting leaders for the mission, calling it “real peace.” While the ceasefire largely holds, tensions persist following an Israeli airstrike targeting Islamic Jihad militants and delays in Hamas returning the remains of 13 hostages. Trump warned Hamas to comply fully or face coordinated international repercussions.

The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced it is withdrawing all its fighters from Turkey to northern Iraq’s Medya Defense Area as part of an ongoing peace process with Ankara. The move follows months of disarmament efforts and a symbolic weapons-destruction ceremony earlier this year. In a statement approved by imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, the group said the withdrawal aims to prevent clashes and reaffirmed its commitment to political dialogue while calling for legal and political concessions from Turkey. The decision aligns with Öcalan’s February appeal for the PKK to disband and pursue political means. The PKK, designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the U.S., and the EU, has waged an insurgency since the 1980s that has killed tens of thousands. Once seeking full independence, the group has shifted its focus toward Kurdish autonomy and civil rights within Turkey as both sides test a fragile peace framework.

China said its H-6K bombers and J-10 fighters recently carried out “simulated confrontation drills” around Taiwan to test air-blockade and precision-strike capabilities, just days before Presidents Trump and Xi are set to meet in South Korea. Taiwan condemned the announcement as propaganda meant to intimidate the island, calling on citizens to remain calm and united. Taipei’s defense ministry reported only minimal Chinese air activity, suggesting the exercises were exaggerated. Beijing framed the drills as defending “national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” releasing footage of bomb drops. The maneuvers come amid rising cross-strait tension and renewed Chinese calls for “peaceful reunification.” President Lai Ching-te reaffirmed Taiwan’s commitment to defense and warned peace cannot rest on “paper agreements.” U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said Taiwan should not fear upcoming U.S.-China talks, reiterating Washington’s support for the island’s security and self-determination.

Argentine President Javier Milei scored sweeping midterm victories Sunday, solidifying his mandate for radical economic reform. His libertarian La Libertad Avanza party captured over 40% of the vote, expanding its lower house seats from 37 to 101 and Senate representation to 20. The results, among the strongest for any Argentine government in decades, ensure Milei can block impeachment attempts and push forward deep tax, labor, and spending overhauls. His win delivered relief to markets and to Washington, where President Trump had hinted at halting $20 billion in U.S. financial aid if Milei lost. While inflation has plunged from 289% to 32% since Milei’s austerity drive began, public discontent remains over subsidy cuts, rising unemployment, and stagnant wages. Milei hailed the results as proof Argentina had “left decadence behind,” framing them as a rejection of decades of Peronist populism that left the country mired in debt and economic dysfunction.